94% — Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026 Leader: Turkey at 94% · Polymarket 94% · 19 contracts · $683 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the aggregated betting market's assessment that Donald Trump will visit China at some point during 2026. At 94%, the contracts suggest traders view such a visit as highly probable, though not certain. The high confidence likely reflects Trump's stated interest in direct engagement with China on trade and geopolitical issues, combined with his pattern of high-profile international travel. Key factors driving this include ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, Trump's historical willingness to meet with Chinese leadership, and the absence of major diplomatic breakdown suggesting a visit would be ruled out. The probability could shift significantly based on trade war escalation, sanctions, or announced diplomatic freezes. Resolution depends on confirmation of any Trump visit to China occurring before December 31, 2026, making calendar year-end the implicit deadline for this contract settlement. Key factors: - Trump's publicly stated interest in engaging directly with China on trade and strategic issues, versus his historical pattern of high-profile summits with major powers - Current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations and trade negotiations throughout 2026, including any announced summits or official visit schedules - Contrasting market prices on other destinations (France at 90%, Turkey at 69%, Germany at 51%) suggest China is viewed as distinctly more likely than European visits - The contract's multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one country's visit counts as settlement, creating competitive dynamics between options - Any formal announcement of Trump's international travel schedule or confirmed calendar commitments through end of 2026 Contracts: - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Turkey — 94¢ Polymarket $263 (weight 39%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: United Kingdom — 78¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 2%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Germany — 59¢ Polymarket $64 (weight 9%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: South Korea — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Japan — 38¢ Polymarket $12 (weight 2%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Israel — 38¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Italy — 34¢ Polymarket $19 (weight 3%) - Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Saudi Arabia — 34¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T02:20:07.837Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-countries-donald-trump-visit Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20countries%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev