13% — Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen
Leader: Israel at 13% · Polymarket 13% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:54:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the probability that Eric Adams, the current Mayor of New York City, will be granted citizenship by at least one country by a specified resolution date. The 12% probability reflects low but non-zero odds, split roughly equally between Israel and China as the most-favored outcomes, with Russia and Sudan at lower probabilities. Market movement would depend on concrete diplomatic developments—such as formal citizenship applications, statements from Adams or relevant governments, or significant changes in US-Israel or US-China relations that might alter incentive structures. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Adams faces circumstances that would motivate seeking foreign citizenship, such as legal jeopardy in the US or a major diplomatic opportunity. Resolution likely depends on official government announcements or public record documentation of citizenship status.

Key factors:
- Eric Adams' current legal status and any pending federal or state charges that might incentivize alternative citizenship
- Official statements or policy positions from Israeli, Chinese, Russian, or Sudanese governments regarding citizenship eligibility or interest in Adams
- Whether Adams makes or publicly discusses any citizenship applications, sponsorships, or formal inquiries with foreign governments
- Changes in US political relationships or Adams' diplomatic role that could create conditions for citizenship offers
- The resolution date of the market contract and whether Adams takes any relevant actions before that deadline

Contracts:
- Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Israel — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: China — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Sudan — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Russia — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-countries-make-eric-adams-citizen
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20countries%20will%20make%20Eric%20Adams%20a%20citizen
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev