94% — Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30
Leader: Turkey at 94% · Kalshi 55% · Polymarket 94% · 12 contracts · $223 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:34:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 39pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Turkey — 94¢ Polymarket $20 (weight 9%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Germany — 56¢ Polymarket $64 (weight 29%)
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States — 55¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 39%)
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: China — 43¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 14%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Japan — 38¢ Polymarket $12 (weight 5%)
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Ukraine — 18¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 2%)
- Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: The Netherlands — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Greece — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.966Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-countries-send-warships-through-strait-of-hormuz
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20countries%20will%20send%20warships%20through%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20by%20April%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev