34% — Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027
Leader: Mexico at 34% · Polymarket 34% · 17 contracts · $50 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:20:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Trump will negotiate and conclude at least one new trade deal with a foreign nation by the end of 2026. The 46% level suggests traders view this as somewhat more likely than not, though with substantial uncertainty. Market activity centers on which specific country might be first: EU trade negotiations historically take months, while smaller deals (particularly with Israel or other bilateral partners) could move faster. The primary factors are Trump's stated priority on trade renegotiation, Congressional approval timelines, and whether other nations prioritize deal-making in 2026. The single biggest catalyst will be any formal announcement of trade negotiations entering advanced stages or a framework agreement being reached with a major trading partner.

Key factors:
- Trump's public statements and executive orders regarding trade priorities have typically preceded formal negotiation launches within 2-6 months
- Congressional support and approval authority requirements vary by deal type—bilateral agreements often move faster than multilateral frameworks
- Trading volume concentration on EU outcome (3¢ price, $1101 volume) versus Israel (17¢ price, $33 volume) suggests significant disagreement on which region Trump targets first
- No scheduled major trade negotiations with specific end-2026 deadlines are currently public, creating baseline uncertainty about timeline and scope
- The runner-up contract at 24% suggests roughly one-quarter of traders believe no new deals materialize, indicating meaningful execution risk

Contracts:
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Mexico — 34¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: India — 27¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 64%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: United Kingdom — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: South Korea — 24¢ Polymarket $4 (weight 8%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Australia — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Canada — 17¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 5%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Vietnam — 17¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: South Africa — 16¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 6%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:10.876Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-countries-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20countries%20will%20Trump%20make%20new%20trade%20deals%20with%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev