36% — Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027
Leader: Somaliland at 36% · Polymarket 36% · 7 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 36% probability reflects trader expectations that at least one additional country will sign the Abraham Accords framework before the end of 2026. The accords, which normalize Arab-Israeli relations, have expanded beyond initial signatories (UAE, Bahrain) to include Morocco, Sudan, and others. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in further expansion within the next seven months. The probability is elevated by ongoing diplomatic engagement in the region and normalization momentum, but tempered by political complications in potential signatory countries and the absence of imminent announcements. Key drivers include whether Arab League states coordinate positions on new signings and how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics evolve. The resolution depends on official announcements of accords signings rather than preliminary talks, making the timeline uncertain despite active diplomatic efforts.

Key factors:
- No major country has publicly announced plans to join the accords in 2026, suggesting current momentum may have plateaued after Sudan's complications
- Morocco's accession in late 2020 remains one of the most recent major additions, indicating the pool of willing signatories may be narrowing
- Ongoing Israeli-Palestinian tensions create political risk for Arab states considering normalization, which could delay or prevent new signings through end-2026
- The accords framework has expanded to 7+ countries since 2020, demonstrating sustained diplomatic momentum that could support additional signings
- Any new accords signing requires formal government action and public announcement, creating a discrete, verifiable resolution point for this contract

Contracts:
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Somaliland — 36¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 31%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Syria — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Azerbaijan — 17¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Lebanon — 13¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 36%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Oman — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Saudi Arabia — 12¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 33%)
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: Kuwait — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-country-join-abraham-accords
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20country%20will%20join%20Abraham%20Accords%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev