19% — Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Leader: Aristotle at 19% · Polymarket 19% · 4 contracts · $49 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:35:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Digital Commodity Market (DCM) will self-certify sports event contracts for the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards category by June 30, 2026. The 63% probability suggests markets perceive meaningful but uncertain regulatory acceptance. Current trading concentrates on specific sports properties—particularly the 151st Kentucky Derby at 32¢ and NHL on ESPN at 36¢—indicating uncertainty about which event will ultimately qualify. The probability would rise if a DCM formally announces self-certification plans or if regulatory guidance explicitly permits sports Emmy broadcasts as eligible contracts. It would fall if regulators issue stricter guidance limiting self-certification authority. The critical resolution date arrives when the Emmy Awards air and market operators make formal certification decisions, likely in late May or early June 2026.

Key factors:
- No DCM has yet announced formal self-certification of a sports Emmy contract as of May 3, 2026, suggesting regulatory or operational hurdles remain
- Trading volume is modest ($824–$3,418 per contract in 24 hours), indicating limited institutional conviction or market participation
- The leading contract (Kentucky Derby at 32¢) reflects fragmentation across multiple eligible events rather than consensus on a single winner
- June 30 deadline provides approximately 8 weeks for DCMs to navigate regulatory approval and technical implementation
- Self-certification authority itself depends on whether regulators have clarified DCM permissions for Emmy-related sports contracts

Contracts:
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Aristotle — 19¢ Polymarket $49 (weight 100%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: ForecastEx — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: CBOE — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Small Exchange — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-dcms-selfcertify-sports-event-contracts-june-30
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev