96% — Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQ
Leader: NASDAQ at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 2 contracts · $78 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 12:22:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a strong market consensus that SpaceX will list on NASDAQ rather than NYSE or remain private. The 91% price reflects expectations shaped by several market dynamics: Elon Musk's stated preference for NASDAQ (where Tesla trades), regulatory clarity around space company valuations, and the exchange's track record attracting high-growth technology firms. The probability could move downward if Musk signals a preference for NYSE, if regulatory changes affect SpaceX's timeline, or if market conditions deteriorate significantly. Upward movement would likely follow official IPO announcements favoring NASDAQ. The critical catalyst is any formal IPO filing or regulatory disclosure that specifies the intended listing venue. Until SpaceX announces an IPO date and exchange, this remains dependent on stated intentions and historical precedent rather than binding commitments.

Key factors:
- Elon Musk's public statements about preferring NASDAQ align with Tesla's listing history
- Related contract shows SpaceX IPO before June 1, 2026 priced at only 10 cents, suggesting uncertain near-term timing
- NASDAQ has successfully listed major aerospace and defense firms historically
- No formal IPO filing or announcement has been made as of the question date
- Market may be extrapolating from Musk's stated preferences rather than concrete corporate guidance

Contracts:
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQ — 96¢ Polymarket $78 (weight 100%)
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: Other — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T19:21:11.942Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-exchange-spacex-list
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20exchange%20will%20SpaceX%20list%20on%3F%3A%20NASDAQ
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev