47% — Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
Leader: The Odyssey at 47% · Polymarket 47% · 7 contracts · $54 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 12:02:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 53% probability reflects market expectations that one particular film will receive more Oscar nominations than its three competitors at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. This leading contender maintains a notable edge over the second-place option at 19%, suggesting moderate confidence rather than overwhelming consensus. The probability level is driven primarily by the film's perceived critical reception, industry momentum during awards season, and its genre or studio positioning relative to competitors. Major factors affecting this outcome include the breadth and quality of a film's technical achievements, the voting patterns of Academy members in particular categories, and how production companies campaign for recognition. The resolution date of this market will be the Oscar nominations announcement, which typically occurs in January following the awards eligibility year. Until that official announcement, the probability may shift based on emerging critical reviews, box office performance, and signals from early-season award ceremonies.

Key factors:
- The leading film's nomination count will be directly determined by Academy voters' ballots cast during the official nomination voting period
- Critical reception and major film festival recognition (Venice, Berlin, etc.) historically correlate with nomination volume across multiple categories
- Campaign spending and studio political relationships have documented effects on voting outcomes within Academy demographics
- Technical achievement in cinematography, sound, editing, and visual effects typically drives higher nomination counts than narrative categories alone
- The specific category eligibility rules and submission deadlines determine which films qualify and can be nominated in each award

Contracts:
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: The Odyssey — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Dune: Messiah — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: The Social Reckoning — 15¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 50%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Disclosure Day — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Wild Horse Nine — 10¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 50%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Project Hail Mary — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Wuthering Heights — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T11:20:09.614Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-film-get-most-oscar-nominations-99th-academy-awards
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20film%20will%20get%20the%20most%20Oscar%20nominations%20at%20the%2099th%20Academy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev