69% — Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026
Leader: Avengers: Doomsday at 69% · Polymarket 69% · 5 contracts · $80 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 19:17:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday — 69¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Dune: Messiah — 19¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 100%)
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Toy Story 5 — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T18:20:07.016Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20movie%20has%20biggest%20opening%20week%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev