73% — Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Leader: Avengers: Doomsday at 73% · Polymarket 73% · 4 contracts · $186 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:28:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 76% probability indicates that market participants believe one specific film will achieve the largest opening weekend in 2026 with roughly three-to-one odds. The current leader appears to be "The Devil Wears Prada 2," supported by contract pricing showing majority expectation for a 70-80 million dollar opening. The prediction hinges on two primary uncertainties: the actual opening weekend performance of this sequel and whether competing releases scheduled throughout 2026 might outperform it. The resolve catalyst is the first weekend box office results for the film's theatrical release, which will provide definitive data against all other 2026 releases. Market confidence reflects prior performance of similar franchise revivals and current studio marketing signals, though actual audience reception and competing titles' strength remain unknown variables that could significantly shift probabilities before the outcome settles.

Key factors:
- The market assigns 93% confidence to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" opening in the 70-80 million dollar range versus 80-90 million, suggesting consensus around specific revenue forecasts
- No other competing films show substantial contract volume or pricing in available data, indicating either limited awareness of alternatives or genuine market belief in this film's dominance
- The 76% leader price is substantially higher than runner-up at 15%, reflecting significant market concentration rather than close competition
- Opening weekend box office results are deterministic and publicly reported within days of release, providing clear resolution without interpretation
- The question structure requires identifying the single largest opening weekend across all 2026 releases, making performance relative to all competing titles the critical variable

Contracts:
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday — 73¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 1%)
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: The Odyssey — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Toy Story 5 — 4¢ Polymarket $185 (weight 99%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.430Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20movie%20has%20biggest%20opening%20weekend%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev