97% — Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms Leader: North Carolina at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 20 contracts · $318 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:42:25 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one state will implement newly drawn congressional maps for the 2026 midterm elections. Markets currently price North Carolina at 97% to use new maps, with South Carolina at 56% as the runner-up, suggesting high confidence in redistricting occurring in at least one state. The high probability reflects states' standard practice of redrawing districts following decennial censuses, though timing varies by state legislature. Courts sometimes impose maps or delay implementation. The key driver is whether redistricting lawsuits or legislative delays postpone map adoption past election cycles. Congressional redistricting typically concludes within 2-3 years post-census; with the 2020 Census establishing new baselines, most states have already finalized or are finalizing their maps. Resolution hinges on whether any state fails to implement new maps by November 2026, which would require unusual legislative gridlock or court intervention pushing maps beyond the midterm election date. Key factors: - North Carolina's map price of 97¢ dominates the market, indicating near-certain expectation that at least one state uses new congressional districts in 2026 - South Carolina at 56¢ represents the second-highest outcome, showing concentration of probability across a limited set of states likely to have redistricting disputes - Four years have passed since the 2020 Census, providing ample time for most state legislatures to complete standard redistricting; delayed states are statistical outliers - Federal courts can impose maps unilaterally if state legislatures deadlock or produce unconstitutional districts, increasing likelihood that some map reaches the midterms - Volume concentration in South Carolina ($1,132 in 24h) and Kansas ($370) suggests uncertainty in which specific state will use new maps, not whether redistricting occurs at all Contracts: - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: North Carolina — 97¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: California — 95¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Ohio — 94¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Texas — 93¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Louisiana — 92¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Utah — 90¢ Polymarket $69 (weight 22%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Missouri — 86¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Alabama — 61¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.309Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-states-use-new-congressional-maps-midterms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20states%20will%20use%20new%20congressional%20maps%20in%20the%20midterms Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev