94% — Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup
Leader: No Replacement at 94% · Polymarket 94% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:15:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Iran will not be replaced by another team at the next FIFA World Cup. The 92% probability for "No Replacement" suggests strong confidence that either Iran's FIFA suspension will be lifted or the situation will remain unchanged. The dominant driver of this price is the current status of Iran's participation eligibility and any ongoing FIFA disciplinary or political proceedings. Market participants are pricing in a low likelihood that another nation steps in as Iran's substitute, with Italy and UAE trading at 3¢ and 4¢ respectively as minor alternatives. The main catalyst would be an official FIFA ruling on Iran's World Cup participation status or confirmation of replacement procedures. Resolution depends on timing of FIFA's administrative decisions and Iran's compliance with any requirements.

Key factors:
- Iran's current FIFA disciplinary status and any announced sanctions affecting World Cup eligibility
- Official FIFA statement or ruling on whether Iran's World Cup participation will proceed as scheduled
- Whether FIFA has established or communicated formal procedures for team replacement and any announced timeline
- Trading volume concentration ($658 in 24h volume for the leading contract) suggesting modest liquidity and potential price sensitivity to new information
- Historical precedent for FIFA World Cup team replacements and current geopolitical context affecting Iran's international sporting participation

Contracts:
- Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?: No Replacement — 94¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 92%)
- Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?: UAE — 3¢ Polymarket $279 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.864Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-team-replace-iran-fifa-world-cup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20team%20will%20replace%20Iran%20at%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev