16% — Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft Kalshi 16% · 10 contracts · $237 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 21:39:48 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that at least two teams will select quarterbacks during the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The 21% level suggests the market views a scenario with multiple first-round QB selections as moderately unlikely but plausible. The primary driver is the perceived quality and necessity of QB prospects in the draft class. If several teams with high draft picks determine their current QB situations are untenable, or if the top QB prospects grade exceptionally well, this probability would increase. Conversely, if teams prioritize other positions or trades shift the draft order significantly, it could decrease. The draft itself on April 23, 2026 will definitively resolve this question, making pre-draft team statements and mock drafts the key information points analysts monitor through spring 2026. Key factors: - The current draft order and which teams hold top-10 picks, particularly those with documented QB concerns or aging QB rosters - How many QB prospects receive first-round grade evaluations from major scouting services heading into the draft - Trade activity during draft week that could alter which teams occupy first-round positions and their strategic priorities - Whether teams with marginal QB situations (injured starters, expiring contracts, or underperforming incumbents) publicly signal QB urgency - Historical precedent: the number of first-round QB selections has ranged from 0-3 in recent years, with most years seeing 1-2 selections Contracts: - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr — 8¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 44%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith — 6¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 19%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore — 15¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 16%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning — 30¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 10%) - Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J — 29¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 8%) - Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona — 34¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:48.667Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/which-teams-draft-qb-1st-round-of-pro-football-draft Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20teams%20will%20draft%20a%20QB%20in%20the%201st%20round%20of%20the%202026%20Pro%20Football%20draft Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev