38% — Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Kalshi 38% · 14 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:04 UTC

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 29¢; kalshi "Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 21¢; kalshi "Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 6¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- Whitmer nomination probability near 0%
- Newsom primary candidate interest at 29%
- Low market conviction for early 2028 cycle declarations
- High volatility in broader political prediction markets

Contracts:
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer — 21¢ Kalshi $919 (weight 71%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden — 26¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 18%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smith — 23¢ Kalshi $92 (weight 7%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 61¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 3%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 54¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.087Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/whitmer-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Gretchen%20Whitmer%20run%20for%20president%20in%202028%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev