44% — Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Kalshi 44% · 12 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 09:54:10 UTC

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 28¢; kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 16¢; kalshi "Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 7¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- 3% chance to be the first to declare
- 2% chance to declare before November 2028
- Negligible odds for various Democratic tickets
- Low market-implied candidacy probability

Contracts:
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 61¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 73%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden — 10¢ Kalshi $591 (weight 18%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day — 20¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 6%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 62¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 2%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 79¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-21T09:20:51.003Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/whitmer-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Gretchen%20Whitmer%20run%20for%20president%20in%202028%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev