41% — Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Kalshi 41% · 14 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 22:08:35 UTC

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?" 77¢; kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 27¢; kalshi "Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 21¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- Negligible probability for Whitmer
- Rahm Emanuel market lead
- Low early cycle momentum
- Gavin Newsom as secondary contender

Contracts:
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 75¢ Kalshi $620 (weight 34%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden — 18¢ Kalshi $460 (weight 25%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 19¢ Kalshi $296 (weight 16%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly — 65¢ Kalshi $179 (weight 10%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel — 74¢ Kalshi $148 (weight 8%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 69¢ Kalshi $64 (weight 4%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day — 20¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 2%)
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 83¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T21:20:49.670Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/whitmer-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Gretchen%20Whitmer%20run%20for%20president%20in%202028%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev