95% — Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary
Leader: Tom Begich at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 20 contracts · $78 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:20:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Tom Begich will advance from Alaska's gubernatorial primary at an 89% confidence level. Begich's commanding position likely reflects his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and polling standing relative to Republican opponents in the state's ranked-choice voting system. The market has substantially priced in his viability, though uncertainty remains around turnout patterns, late-breaking endorsements, or shifts in voter preference during the primary season. The Alaska primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract. Between now and then, quarterly fundraising disclosures, internal polling leaks, and any major candidate withdrawals could shift the probability meaningfully.

Key factors:
- Tom Begich's current fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to closest Republican competitors
- Alaska's ranked-choice voting mechanics and whether they favor Begich's coalition or enable splitting among opponents
- August 2026 primary election date and final voter turnout relative to historical baselines for Alaska gubernatorial races
- Any candidate exits or consolidations that would redirect support before the primary vote
- Recent public polling data on head-to-head matchups and candidate favorability among likely primary voters

Contracts:
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Tom Begich — 95¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 3%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Bernadette Wilson — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Lesil McGuire — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Bill Walker — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Jessica Faircloth — 44¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Destry J. Payne Sr. — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Matt Claman — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Click Bishop — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.976Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-advance-from-alaska-governor-primary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20advance%20from%20the%20Alaska%20Governor%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev