3% — Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 14:12:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This 9% probability indicates that Janelle Kellman has a roughly 1-in-11 chance of advancing from the California Lieutenant Governor primary. The current estimate reflects market assessment of her position among multiple candidates competing for the two spots that advance to the general election. Key factors shaping this probability include the candidate's current polling standing relative to frontrunners, fundraising totals compared to competitors, and endorsement patterns. The June 2026 primary election will ultimately determine which candidates secure enough votes to advance. Until then, any significant shifts in campaign momentum, poll movements, or candidate entry/exits could materially impact expectations around individual candidate advancement chances.

Key factors:
- Current polling position relative to the leading California Lieutenant Governor candidates and proximity to the top-two threshold
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared candidates in the race
- Endorsements from established Democratic Party figures, labor unions, or other influential organizations
- Voter name recognition and turnout patterns in California primary elections among the likely electorate
- Any candidate entry, exit, or major strategic shift by frontrunners that could reshape the competitive landscape

Contracts:
- Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary?: Janelle Kellman — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T07:20:52.734Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev