50% — Who will be arrested before 2027
Leader: John Brennan at 50% · Polymarket 50% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assigns a 48% probability that John Brennan will face arrest before the end of 2026, making it the leading outcome among 20 named individuals. The probability reflects uncertainty around potential legal proceedings involving the former CIA director, likely connected to ongoing investigations or litigation. Factors driving the current level include the status of any active cases, statements from prosecutors or courts, and political developments that could trigger or accelerate legal action. Resolution depends on whether formal arrest occurs before January 1, 2027—a binary outcome with less than eight months remaining. Volume on the leading contract remains modest, suggesting limited mainstream attention or confidence in the outcome.

Key factors:
- Current legal status: whether any indictments, warrants, or court filings exist against Brennan as of mid-2026
- Recent prosecutor or law-enforcement statements: any public indication of intent to pursue charges or make arrests
- Political environment: whether control of relevant agencies or administrations has shifted in ways that alter prosecution likelihood
- Calendar constraint: only ~225 days remain until resolution; any arrest would need to occur before year-end 2026
- Comparison to runner-up at 45%: the narrow margin suggests market participants view multiple outcomes as plausible rather than one as dominant

Contracts:
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: John Brennan — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: Letitia James — 30¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero — 28¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 1%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: Susan Rice — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: James Clapper — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: Mahmoud Khalil — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be arrested before 2027?: Lee Jun-seok — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T02:20:07.726Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-arrested
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20arrested%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev