13% — Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair
Kalshi 13% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:44:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific individual will successfully undergo Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve Chair, currently estimated at 62%. The probability sits at the midpoint of traditional political uncertainty, neither heavily favored nor unlikely. Market confidence hinges on two primary dynamics: Senate composition and voting patterns in confirmation votes, and any potential withdrawal or alternative candidate emerging. The Senate Banking Committee hearing and subsequent floor vote represent the critical juncture that will clarify whether this nominee commands sufficient bipartisan support or faces substantial opposition. The 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests modest disagreement about confirmation likelihood, with Polymarket pricing slightly more optimistic than Kalshi.

Key factors:
- Senate Banking Committee confirmation vote schedule and timing remain the single largest event driving resolution
- Cross-venue probability gap of 4 percentage points indicates venues have not fully converged, suggesting differing assessments of Senate voting behavior
- No bound contracts at top level implies market participants are still positioning ahead of major information events
- Confirmation probabilities typically reflect underlying Senate party composition and historical confirmation voting patterns
- Alternative nomination scenarios or candidate withdrawal would substantially shift baseline expectations

Contracts:
- Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T08:20:09.999Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-confirmed-as-fed-chair
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20confirmed%20as%20Fed%20Chair
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev