3% — Who will enter Iran by June 30
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $523 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 10:45:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether anyone will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026—a timeframe of roughly 8 weeks from today. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that major political or security developments would trigger cross-border entry by that date. The current level balances two competing dynamics: falling regimes or negotiated political settlements could enable such entry, while Iran's closed borders and lack of imminent regime collapse make it unlikely in the near term. The June 2026 FOMC meeting and ongoing nuclear negotiation discussions represent potential catalysts, though neither directly guarantees cross-border movement. A collapse of Iranian state control, successful regime change, or dramatic diplomatic breakthrough would substantially increase this probability, whereas continued regional stability would keep it low.

Key factors:
- Iranian regime stability and state control of borders remain intact as of May 2026, with no active armed rebellion or imminent collapse scenarios
- Reza Pahlavi (primary contract focus) lacks military force or external military backing to enter Iran unilaterally within two months
- Nuclear deal negotiations cited in related contracts show diplomatic engagement but no timeline suggesting regime change or border opening by June 30
- Related contract at 7% (regime fall by June 30) suggests underlying market assigns very low probability to any political upheaval this narrow timeframe
- Volume concentration in longer-dated contracts (December Pahlavi contract at 11¢) indicates traders assign higher probability to entry after June 30

Contracts:
- Who will enter Iran by June 30?: Any U.S. House member — 3¢ Polymarket $523 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-enter-iran-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20enter%20Iran%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev