95% — Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet
Leader: Tulsi Gabbard at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 7 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-24 23:25:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Tulsi Gabbard — 95¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 72%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Howard Lutnick — 16¢ Polymarket $255 (weight 3%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Marco Rubio — 9¢ Polymarket $226 (weight 3%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Lee Zeldin — 5¢ Polymarket $398 (weight 4%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: None before 2027 — 3¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 13%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Chris Wright — 3¢ Polymarket $324 (weight 4%)
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Doug Collins — 3¢ Polymarket $135 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T01:20:12.946Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-next-to-leave-trump-cabinet
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20next%20to%20leave%20the%20Trump%20Cabinet
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev