83% — Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)
Leader: Scott Wiener at 83% · Polymarket 83% · 2 contracts · $246 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates that a particular candidate has a 78% chance of finishing first in the 2026 primary election for California's 11th congressional district, formerly held by Nancy Pelosi. The frontrunner's dominant probability reflects either strong name recognition, fundraising advantage, or organizational support within the district, while the runner-up at 18% suggests a competitive challenger. The outcome will likely be determined by voter preference in the primary scheduled for June 2026. Key uncertainties include candidate campaign momentum, endorsement patterns, and whether unexpected candidates enter the race. Resolution depends entirely on official primary results from California election authorities.

Key factors:
- The leading candidate's 78% probability versus the runner-up's 18% indicates substantial but not overwhelming separation in market expectations
- Primary election date is scheduled for June 2026; candidate filing deadlines and final field composition will clarify contest competitiveness before then
- Related Kalshi contracts show incumbent or well-established candidates in nearby districts (CA-25, CA-28, CA-17) trading at 89-96 cents, suggesting strong incumbents or frontrunners perform similarly across the state
- The runner-up candidate is priced at 18%, indicating the market assigns meaningful probability to an upset scenario rather than a one-candidate race
- Trading volume on the CA-11 contracts is substantially lower ($443-$776 per contract) than comparable districts ($3,069-$12,237), suggesting lower market confidence or attention to this particular race

Contracts:
- Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?: Scott Wiener — 83¢ Polymarket $82 (weight 33%)
- Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?: Saikat Chakrabarti — 18¢ Polymarket $165 (weight 67%)

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-place-first-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20place%20first%20in%20the%20primary%20for%20Nancy%20Pelosi%E2%80%99s%20congressional%20seat%20(CA-11)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev