93% — Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General
Leader: Todd Blanche at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 2 contracts · $39K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 21:06:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects market participants' assessment of which candidate is most likely to be nominated as Attorney General in a Trump administration. Todd Blanche commands the highest contract price at 64 cents, indicating roughly 64% implied probability among Kalshi traders, while other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Lee Zeldin, and Jeanine Pirro trade at substantially lower prices. The probability hinges on Trump's selection criteria, which typically emphasize loyalty, legal acumen, and alignment with his policy agenda. Key factors influencing the market include candidates' current roles, public statements by Trump regarding potential nominees, media reporting on his vetting process, and any formal announcements. The resolution point would be Trump's official announcement or nomination of an Attorney General, which would occur either following an election victory or during transition planning.

Key factors:
- Todd Blanche's current role as Trump's lawyer and public visibility in legal matters compared to other candidates' profiles
- Volume and price stability on Kalshi contracts indicate trader confidence levels, with Blanche's contract showing significantly higher 24-hour volume ($16,133) than competitors
- Public reporting or statements from Trump regarding Attorney General preferences and the timeline for such announcements
- Changes in other candidates' availability or prominence—such as electoral or appointment outcomes for Zeldin or DeSantis
- Formal announcement by Trump of his Attorney General selection, which would fully resolve the contract

Contracts:
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?: Todd Blanche — 93¢ Polymarket $30K (weight 78%)
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?: No Announcement by June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 22%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-04T05:20:12.517Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20announce%20as%20next%20Attorney%20General
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev