93% — Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30
Leader: Todd Blanche at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 2 contracts · $39K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:17:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the probability that Trump will publicly name an Attorney General nominee before June 30, 2026. Currently, the market suggests it is more likely than not that no announcement occurs by that deadline. The probability hinges on Trump's timeline for filling the position and whether he prioritizes Attorney General appointments early in his term. The critical catalyst will be any public announcement or statement from Trump or his team regarding a specific nominee. Markets often price in delays when official nomination processes have not yet begun or when political deliberation remains active.

Key factors:
- Trump has not yet made a public announcement as of May 2026, leaving 49 days until the June 30 deadline
- The leading candidate (Lee Zeldin) trades at 9 cents, indicating no single nominee has market consensus
- Todd Blanche at 10 cents is the highest-priced individual in the contracts, suggesting fragmented expectations across multiple potential candidates
- Historical precedent: Attorney General nominations typically occur within the first few months of a presidential term, but timing varies significantly
- Combined probability of all named candidates totals approximately 35 cents, leaving 50 cents attributed to no announcement—indicating substantial uncertainty about both timing and candidate selection

Contracts:
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?: Todd Blanche — 93¢ Polymarket $30K (weight 78%)
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?: No Announcement by June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 22%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20announce%20as%20next%20Attorney%20General%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev