27% — Who will Trump name in April
Kalshi 27% · 6 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 05:50:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 27% probability reflects the likelihood that Trump will make a significant appointment in April 2026. The level is primarily driven by expectations around the Attorney General position, where Todd Blanche currently has the highest individual probability at 72 cents. Several other contracts reflect different high-level appointments and events, though they show lower consensus. The main factors pushing this probability would be Trump's stated timeline for personnel decisions and any public announcements about when key positions will be filled. The resolution depends on actual appointments being made during April 2026, with the Attorney General role being the most closely watched contract. Market activity has been light on most contracts, suggesting limited trading volume and potentially low confidence in these specific predictions.

Key factors:
- Todd Blanche's 72-cent probability as next Attorney General represents the single largest driver of the 27% aggregate, indicating strong market expectation for this specific appointment
- Only one contract in the set (Blanche as AG) shows significant trading volume ($8,621 in 24 hours), suggesting most contracts lack liquidity and deeper market conviction
- Three alternative AG candidates (DeSantis, Zeldin) carry combined probabilities below 10 cents, indicating relatively low market confidence in competing possibilities
- The presence of unrelated contracts (Epstein documents, Taylor Swift as Person of the Decade) in the aggregation raises questions about contract selection methodology
- April 2026 deadline is approximately 10 months away, providing substantial time for new information to emerge that could shift appointment probabilities

Contracts:
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche — 73¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 52%)
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin — 6¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 27%)
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $495 (weight 3%)
- Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Donald Trump — 56¢ Kalshi $220 (weight 1%)
- Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift — 18¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:48.859Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-name-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20name%20in%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev