52% — Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Leader: Matt Gaetz at 52% · Polymarket 52% · 20 contracts · $67 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 14:44:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Daniel Penny will receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. The current 54% price suggests roughly even odds, though traders are distributed across multiple potential pardon recipients including Steve Bannon (24¢), Edward Snowden (28¢), and Ghislaine Maxwell (12¢). The probability would rise if Trump signals willingness to pardon politically controversial figures or if legal pressures on specific individuals intensify. It would fall if Trump announces a restrictive pardon policy or if prospective recipients' legal situations improve. The primary catalyst is any formal pardon announcement by the administration, which would immediately resolve the outcome and likely trigger cascading reassessment across related contracts.

Key factors:
- Daniel Penny's conviction status and whether his case remains subject to ongoing litigation or appeal that could influence pardon timing
- Trump administration's stated position on presidential clemency for controversial or high-profile figures versus routine criminal defendants
- Relative political cost-benefit calculations across the 20 named individuals, which may shift based on media coverage or public opinion developments
- Volume and pricing patterns across competing outcomes, with Edward Snowden at 28¢ and Steve Bannon at 24¢ suggesting market uncertainty about the administration's priorities
- Historical precedent from Trump's first term regarding pardon frequency and targets, and any changes in 2025-2026 behavior that would indicate shifting patterns

Contracts:
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Matt Gaetz — 52¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Daniel Penny — 51¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Roger Stone — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Roger Ver — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Bob Menendez — 35¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Julian Assange — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Edward Snowden — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Steve Bannon — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-pardon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20pardon%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev