20% — Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31
Leader: Marjorie Taylor Greene at 20% · Polymarket 20% · 6 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:03:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Marjorie Taylor Greene — 20¢ Polymarket $178 (weight 6%)
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Pope Leo XIV — 7¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 53%)
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Emmanuel Macron — 6¢ Polymarket $76 (weight 3%)
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Tucker Carlson — 5¢ Polymarket $810 (weight 27%)
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Megyn Kelly — 5¢ Polymarket $339 (weight 11%)
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Freidrich Merz — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T01:20:12.528Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-publicly-insult-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20publicly%20insult%20by%20May%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev