49% — Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31
Leader: Jesus at 49% · Polymarket 49% · 16 contracts · $88 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:42:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will make a public statement praising a specific individual between now and May 31, 2026—roughly one week away. The current 48% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Trump will issue such praise in this narrow timeframe. The outcome hinges on Trump's public communication patterns and whether he mentions any of the named individuals favorably in interviews, social media posts, or official statements. The tight six-day window means the resolution depends entirely on Trump's spontaneous or planned public remarks during this period. With zero trading volume on these contracts, the pricing may not reflect recent shifts in expectations or breaking news that could influence Trump's public statements.

Key factors:
- Time window is 6 days remaining (May 25-31), creating a compressed probability space where daily activity matters substantially
- No trading volume in past 24 hours suggests thin liquidity and potentially stale price signals that may not reflect current expectations
- The leading contracts (Ronny Jackson at 42¢, Erika Kirk at 43¢) suggest market participants are pricing multiple plausible outcomes rather than consensus on a single individual
- Trump's public communication frequency and style determine the baseline probability—higher activity increases chances someone gets mentioned favorably
- Resolution depends on literal public praise language; unclear whether threshold includes casual mentions, retweets, or only explicit endorsements

Contracts:
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Jesus — 49¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 9%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Erika Kirk — 43¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 6%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Ronny Jackson — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Oz Pearlman — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Franklin Graham — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: William McKinley — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Mark Rutte — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Karoline Leavitt — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.400Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-publicly-praise-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20publicly%20praise%20by%20May%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev