21% — Who will Trump talk to in April
Kalshi 21% · 4 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 08:45:46 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations about who will serve as Trump's next Attorney General, with Todd Blanche currently priced as the leading candidate at 74%. Blanche's position reflects his experience as Trump's criminal defense attorney and his prominence in recent high-profile legal proceedings. The significant gap between Blanche (74%) and other candidates like Lee Zeldin (6%) and Ron DeSantis (4%) suggests strong market consensus, though alternative candidates retain non-trivial probabilities. The outcome will resolve once Trump formally nominates and the Senate confirms an Attorney General, or through public announcement of the appointment. Market movement would likely follow shifts in media coverage, Trump's public statements about his preferred candidate, or developments in pending legal matters affecting candidate viability.

Key factors:
- Todd Blanche's documented prior legal representation of Trump and public visibility in recent cases
- Comparison of Blanche's prior government experience versus alternative candidates like Zeldin and DeSantis
- Volume concentration: $9,906 in 24-hour volume on the leading contract versus $1,801 and $1,117 on alternatives suggests uneven market participation
- Timing of formal nomination announcement by Trump and subsequent Senate confirmation process
- Public statements or positioning by Blanche, Zeldin, DeSantis, or other potential candidates regarding willingness to serve

Contracts:
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche — 73¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 44%)
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 21%)
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 18%)
- Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T08:20:48.965Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-trump-talk-to-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Trump%20talk%20to%20in%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev