9% — Who visited Epstein's Island
Leader: Deepak Chopra at 9% · Polymarket 9% · 8 contracts · $747 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents a 10% probability that Woody Allen visited Epstein's Island, based on aggregated contract prices across prediction markets. The current level reflects limited public evidence directly linking Allen to the island, though historical associations and media speculation provide some signal. Key drivers include documentary releases, legal proceedings, or credible witness testimony that could establish presence records. The probability could shift significantly if new court documents are unsealed, investigative journalism surfaces flight logs, or corroborating testimonies emerge during ongoing litigation. Near-term uncertainty hinges on whether major media outlets publish verified information before summer 2026, as evidenced by the high volume on the SNL Weekend Update contract predicting on-air mention of the topic.

Key factors:
- No publicly verified flight logs or photographic evidence has definitively placed Woody Allen on Epstein's Island as of May 2026
- Historical associations between Allen and Epstein social circles have been documented but do not confirm island visitation
- Pending litigation and investigation-related document releases could surface new evidence; timing and content remain uncertain
- Media attention cycles and investigative journalism output will likely determine if new testimony or records reach public knowledge in the coming months
- The 10% probability implies markets assign roughly 9-to-1 odds against this claim versus other named individuals in the contract set

Contracts:
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Deepak Chopra — 9¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 1%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Woody Allen — 6¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 6%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Steve Bannon — 6¢ Polymarket $14 (weight 2%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Kevin Spacey — 4¢ Polymarket $673 (weight 90%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Harvey Weinstein — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Jay-Z — 3¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 1%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Steven Tisch — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who visited Epstein's Island?: Peter Attia — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-visited-epsteins-island
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20visited%20Epstein's%20Island
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev