70% — Who will win Chopped Castaways Leader: Jean-Paul Bourgeois at 70% · Polymarket 70% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-29 23:55:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: Jean-Paul Bourgeois is priced as a 73% favorite to win the upcoming Chopped Castaways competition, based on aggregated predictions across 12 separate contracts. This probability reflects traders' assessment that Bourgeois has a substantially higher likelihood of victory compared to other competitors. The market shows considerable confidence in this outcome relative to the runner-up at 22%, though the remaining field splits roughly 5% across lower-priced contenders including Paulette Tejada, Ara Zada, Sunny Moody, Cate Meade, and Dwight Hudgins. The resolution will depend on the competition's actual results when Chopped Castaways airs. Key factors likely influencing the pricing include participants' demonstrated cooking skills in prior performances, their strategic strengths in survival or adaptation contexts, and any publicly available information about the competitive dynamics among this specific cast. Key factors: - Jean-Paul Bourgeois maintains 3.3x the implied probability of the second-place contender, suggesting market participants perceive a material skill or strategic advantage - Paulette Tejada (5¢) is the highest-priced challenger among remaining competitors, with 24-hour trading volume matching lower-tier favorites, indicating some trader disagreement on the consensus ranking - The combined probability of all non-Bourgeois outcomes totals approximately 27%, representing meaningful residual uncertainty despite the strong favorite pricing - Trading volume remains modest ($120+ across top contracts in 24 hours), suggesting limited market participation may increase sensitivity to new information about contestant backgrounds or competition format - Cate Meade, Dwight Hudgins, and Ara Zada are all priced at or below 6¢, indicating the market assigns negligible winning probability to most of the field Contracts: - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Jean-Paul Bourgeois — 70¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Stephen Kina — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Paulette Tejada — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Sunny Moody — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Logan Sandoval — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Hannah Flora — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Carrie Baird — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - Who will win Chopped Castaways?: Ara Zada — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.726Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-win-chopped-castaways Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Chopped%20Castaways Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev