46% — Who will win Dancing with the Stars
Leader: Season 35?: Maura Higgins at 46% · Polymarket 46% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:40:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 49% probability assigned to Ciara Miller reflects a near-tie outcome between her and Maura Higgins in Dancing with the Stars Season 35, indicating a highly competitive final stage where either contestant has roughly equal odds of winning. This level of uncertainty typically emerges when two finalists have demonstrated comparable technical skill, audience support, and judge scores throughout the competition. The probability could shift significantly based on the cumulative performance in remaining episodes—particularly dance technique execution, choreography interpretation, and crowd engagement—before the finale airs. The most immediate catalyst for resolution will be the final episode broadcast, which typically airs in late 2025 or early 2026 depending on the season's schedule. Market pricing reflects genuine competitive parity rather than a clear frontrunner, meaning either contestant's performance in closing performances could materially move these odds.

Key factors:
- Current pricing shows Ciara Miller at exactly 49% versus Maura Higgins at 49%, indicating no detectable market edge between finalists
- 24-hour trading volume is $0 on both contracts, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
- The final episode has not yet aired as of the prediction date, leaving all resolution uncertainty intact
- Judge scores and viewer voting patterns from previous season episodes would be the primary data points informing contract values
- Season 35's finale date and any last-minute cast withdrawals or score corrections could trigger repricing before final resolution

Contracts:
- Who will win Dancing with the Stars: Season 35?: Maura Higgins — 46¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- Who will win Dancing with the Stars: Season 35?: Ciara Miller — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.741Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-win-dancing-with-stars
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Dancing%20with%20the%20Stars
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev