76% — Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal
Leader: Hong Wang at 76% · Polymarket 76% · 11 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 01:22:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 2026 Fields Medal will be awarded in July 2026 to a mathematician under 40 for outstanding mathematical achievement. Hong Wang currently has the highest implied probability at 81%, suggesting strong consensus among traders that he is the frontrunner, though John Pardon (41¢) and Jacob Tsimerman (63¢) represent meaningful alternative outcomes. Prices shift as new mathematical publications emerge, conference presentations occur, and the Fields Medal Committee's evaluation process advances toward the July award ceremony. The resolution date is fixed: the International Congress of Mathematicians in 2026, when the Medal Committee will announce the winners. Until then, prices may adjust based on new research announcements, peer recognition, or changes in how traders weight recent accomplishments against career trajectory.

Key factors:
- Hong Wang trades at 82¢ versus John Pardon at 41¢, indicating a significant but not overwhelming market consensus; the largest single-contract volume ($22 in 24h) is on Pardon, suggesting live disagreement
- The next Fields Medal announcement is scheduled for July 2026 at the International Congress of Mathematicians; no earlier public decision or preliminary shortlist is expected
- Recent high-impact mathematics publications, conference talks, or collaborative breakthroughs could shift prices for any of the top five candidates
- Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢ and Yu Deng at 38¢ remain in contention; combined they represent meaningful non-Hong Wang probability
- The 10-contract structure means each trader outcome is bound; prices reflect expected probability conditional on that person winning, not joint probabilities across candidates

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Hong Wang — 76¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 74%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Jacob Tsimerman — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Yu Deng — 55¢ Polymarket $398 (weight 23%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Vesselin Dimitrov — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: John Pardon — 46¢ Polymarket $33 (weight 2%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Aleksandr Logunov — 33¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Jack Thorne — 27¢ Polymarket $11 (weight 1%)
- Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Sam Raskin — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T01:20:18.587Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/who-win-fields-medal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Fields%20Medal
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev