22% — Will Joseph Aoun visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 22% · 16 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 17:27:09 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents whether Joseph Aoun, the president of Northeastern University, will visit the White House before the end of 2026. At 28%, the market suggests this outcome is moderately unlikely but not exceptional. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Aoun would be invited for a formal meeting, education policy discussion, or public event at the White House. Key drivers include the incoming president's education priorities, whether Aoun's university features in federal policy initiatives, and the frequency of university leader engagements at the White House. Most catalysts would emerge from official announcements or public schedules released by either the White House or Northeastern University indicating a scheduled visit. The comparison contracts show wide variation in visit probabilities across different public figures, ranging from 81% for Xi Jinping to 16% for Cristiano Ronaldo, reflecting the highly contextual nature of White House visitor predictions. Key factors: - Recent appointments or policy announcements from the White House regarding higher education leadership or university partnerships - Public statements from Northeastern University or the White House communications office about scheduled meetings or collaborative initiatives - Historical frequency of university president visits to the White House during similar periods under the current administration - Calendar announcements or official event listings from the White House website showing confirmed visitor schedules through December 2026 - Media reports or press releases indicating Aoun's involvement in federal education policy discussions or task forces Contracts: - Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Elon Musk — 77¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 66%) - Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: John Ternus — 15¢ Kalshi $526 (weight 23%) - Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping — 96¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 7%) - Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama — 3¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 1%) - Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Joe Biden — 4¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 1%) - Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Hakeem Jeffries — 8¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 1%) - Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin — 3¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T17:20:50.039Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/whvisit Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Joseph%20Aoun%20visit%20the%20White%20House%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev