97% — Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre Leader: Above 164 bu/acre at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 9 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:01 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 42% chance that Wisconsin's 2026 corn yield will exceed 180 bushels per acre. This represents a modest expectation relative to recent historical trends, reflecting uncertainty about weather conditions, pest pressure, and agronomic outcomes during the growing season. Yields typically vary based on summer rainfall, temperature patterns, soil conditions, and disease prevalence. The contract ladder shows declining probabilities for higher yield thresholds (34% for above 184 bu/acre, 21% for above 188), indicating market skepticism about exceptionally strong harvests. The outcome will be determined when the USDA releases its official Wisconsin corn yield estimate, typically in November 2026 after the harvest period concludes. Current probability levels suggest traders view 180 bu/acre as modestly above expected outcomes rather than a baseline scenario. Key factors: - Wisconsin's five-year average corn yield (2021-2025) was approximately 178-182 bu/acre; 180 bu/acre represents near-trend performance - Midwest weather patterns from July through September 2026 will be the primary driver of yield, particularly soil moisture availability and heat stress timing during grain fill - USDA's official yield estimate release in November 2026 will provide the definitive resolution; this data is published before year-end - The contract pricing ladder (42% above 180, 34% above 184, 21% above 188) reflects a distribution skewed toward moderate yields rather than exceptional harvests - Historical volatility in Wisconsin yields ranges from approximately 160-195 bu/acre, establishing the biological feasibility of outcomes across the contract strike prices Contracts: - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 164 bu/acre?: Above 164 bu/acre — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 168 bu/acre?: Above 168 bu/acre — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 172 bu/acre?: Above 172 bu/acre — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 176 bu/acre?: Above 176 bu/acre — 84¢ Kalshi $725 (weight 55%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre?: Above 180 bu/acre — 71¢ Kalshi $426 (weight 32%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 184 bu/acre?: Above 184 bu/acre — 50¢ Kalshi $178 (weight 13%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 188 bu/acre?: Above 188 bu/acre — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 192 bu/acre?: Above 192 bu/acre — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.759Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wicornyield Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Wisconsin's%20corn%20for%20grain%20yield%20per%20harvested%20acre%20for%202026%20be%20above%20180%20bu%2Facre Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev