71% — Will the inclusion of hedgehog on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed
Kalshi 68% · 8 contracts · $135 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:43:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the Bank of England will officially confirm the hedgehog as part of its 2026 wildlife shortlist—a conservation-themed initiative the central bank is reportedly considering. At 81%, traders believe confirmation is more likely than not, suggesting relatively high conviction based on available evidence. The probability reflects expectations around the Bank's upcoming announcement timeline and any interim statements from officials. Upward pressure comes from conservation priorities and media advocacy; downward pressure would come from competing species candidates or delays in the selection process. The resolution depends entirely on the Bank of England's official public confirmation, which is the key event that will settle this market.

Key factors:
- Bank of England's stated conservation focus and any prior public signals about including small mammals on the shortlist
- Relative lobbying momentum for hedgehog versus other competing species (e.g., bees, otters, badgers) in shortlist consideration
- Timeline and official announcement date set by the Bank for revealing its 2026 wildlife shortlist selection
- Historical precedent: whether the Bank has previously included controversial or niche species in past conservation initiatives
- Recent hedgehog population and media coverage trends that may influence institutional decision-making

Contracts:
- Will the inclusion of puffin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Puffin — 75¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 50%)
- Will the inclusion of badger on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Badger — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of fox on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Fox — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of hedgehog on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Hedgehog — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of kingfisher on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Kingfisher — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of otter on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Otter — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of red squirrel on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Red Squirrel — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the inclusion of robin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Robin — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wildsht
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20inclusion%20of%20hedgehog%20on%20the%202026%20Bank%20of%20England%20wildlife%20shortlist%20be%20confirmed
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev