96% — Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 452,500 jobs Leader: Above 447,500 jobs at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 7 contracts · $43K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is assessing whether Wisconsin's manufacturing workforce will average above 455,000 employees in 2026—a threshold that sits between modest growth and relative stability compared to recent years. The 37% probability reflects skepticism about reaching that employment level, suggesting market participants expect either flat or declining manufacturing jobs in the state. Key drivers include Wisconsin's exposure to automotive supply chains and industrial equipment sectors, which are sensitive to national economic growth and consumer demand. The market will resolve once Wisconsin reports its official annual average employment data for 2026, typically released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early 2027. Current contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher employment thresholds, with only 10% probability assigned to exceeding 460,000 jobs, indicating consensus around a relatively constrained manufacturing employment environment. Key factors: - Wisconsin's automotive supply chain and equipment manufacturing sectors depend heavily on national vehicle production and capital investment cycles - National manufacturing employment trends and regional economic conditions through late 2026 will significantly influence year-end workforce levels - The official data source is BLS annual average employment figures for Wisconsin's manufacturing sector, reported with a lag in early 2027 - Contract pricing shows sharp probability drops at 5,000-job increments (37% at 455k, 25% at 457.5k, 10% at 460k), indicating tight expectations around a narrow range - Recent Wisconsin manufacturing employment trends, supply chain disruptions, and Federal Reserve policy affecting business investment will be critical to final outcome Contracts: - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 447,500 jobs?: Above 447,500 jobs — 96¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 42%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 450,000 jobs?: Above 450,000 jobs — 92¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 452,500 jobs?: Above 452,500 jobs — 82¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 455,000 jobs?: Above 455,000 jobs — 52¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 457,500 jobs?: Above 457,500 jobs — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 460,000 jobs?: Above 460,000 jobs — 19¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%) - Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 462,500 jobs?: Above 462,500 jobs — 5¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 22%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.772Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wimfgemp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Wisconsin's%20annual-average%20manufacturing%20employment%20for%202026%20be%20above%20452%2C500%20jobs Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev