39% — Will Winds of Winter be announced?
Kalshi 41% · Polymarket 8% · 15 contracts · $205K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 20:18:53 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 33pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.7 million TEUs? — 79¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 13%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs? — 89¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 13%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.1 million TEUs? — 12¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 11%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.8 million TEUs? — 69¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 10%)
- Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.9 million TEUs? — 55¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 9%)
- Will there be more than 4  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — 8¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 9%)
- Will there be more than 6  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — 2¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 9%)
- Will there be more than 5  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 8%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-19T06:43:23.325Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/winds-of-winter
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Winds%20of%20Winter%20be%20announced%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev