3% — Will Winds of Winter be announced?
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:04:39 UTC

Contracts:
- Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? — 3¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:54.820Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/winds-of-winter
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Winds%20of%20Winter%20be%20announced%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev