46% — Will Amanda Bell be the Democratic nominee for WI-06
Kalshi 46% · 11 contracts · $634 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:27 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Amanda Bell wins the Democratic primary election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market views her as a competitive but not favored candidate among the potential Democratic nominees. Primary election outcomes depend heavily on candidate resources, name recognition, grassroots organization, and voter turnout patterns within the district. The probability could shift based on endorsements, campaign spending reports, polling data, or candidate entry/exit decisions. The Democratic primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract, with nomination determined at the state party convention or through a primary vote, depending on Wisconsin's 2026 nomination process. Between now and that date, candidates' fundraising announcements and organizational activities will likely trigger significant probability movements.

Key factors:
- Amanda Bell's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in WI-06
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, county organizations, or established state Democratic figures
- Public polling of Democratic primary voters in WI-06, if conducted, showing Bell's name recognition and support levels relative to competitors
- Candidate field composition—whether other strong candidates enter or withdraw from the Democratic primary
- Early voting or organizational indicators such as door-knocking campaigns, volunteer recruitment, or event turnout in the district

Contracts:
- Will Katrina DeVille be the Democratic nominee for WI-08?: Katrina DeVille — 6¢ Kalshi $309 (weight 49%)
- Will Kevin Hermening be the Republican nominee for WI-07?: Kevin Hermening — 9¢ Kalshi $115 (weight 18%)
- Will Ben Steinhoff be the Democratic nominee for WI-05?: Ben Steinhoff — 5¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 16%)
- Will Emily Berge be the Democratic nominee for WI-03?: Emily Berge — 29¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 12%)
- Will Gwen Moore be the Democratic nominee for WI-04?: Gwen Moore — 92¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 3%)
- Will Brad Smith be the Democratic nominee for WI-06?: Brad Smith — 87¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- Will Michael Alfonso be the Republican nominee for WI-07?: Michael Alfonso — 79¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will Peter Burgelis be the Democratic nominee for WI-01?: Peter Burgelis — 18¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.615Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wiprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Amanda%20Bell%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20WI-06
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev