38% — Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Francesca Hong at 38% · Polymarket 38% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 00:15:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will win Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, currently priced at 40% compared to a 37% runner-up. The Democratic primary winner matters because Wisconsin is a swing state where the general election outcome often depends on the party nominee's viability and appeal to suburban and working-class voters. The current pricing likely reflects differences in candidate name recognition, organizational strength, and perceived electability in a general election matchup. The primary election date and any major candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts would be key drivers of probability movement. Market participants are factoring in candidate funding levels, union support, and regional strength, though uncertainty remains relatively high given the close margin between leading candidates.

Key factors:
- Candidate fundraising totals and spending capacity relative to the leading competitor (data typically reported quarterly)
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures and labor unions, which signal organizational backing and voter mobilization capacity
- Polling data within Wisconsin showing candidate name recognition and favorability trends among Democratic primary voters
- Historical turnout patterns in Wisconsin Democratic primaries and candidate ability to activate base voters in key regions
- Timing of the primary election and any dropouts or late-entry candidates that could consolidate support

Contracts:
- Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Francesca Hong — 38¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Mandela Barnes — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Sara Rodriguez — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Missy Hughes — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-16T23:20:46.864Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Wisconsin%20Governor%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev