36% — Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029
Leader: World Trade Organization at 36% · Kalshi 36% · 8 contracts · $95 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that the United States withdraws from the International Atomic Energy Agency before January 20, 2029—approximately 37 in 100 odds based on current prediction market pricing. The IAEA is a UN-affiliated body responsible for nuclear non-proliferation oversight and cooperation. A withdrawal would represent a significant departure from decades of U.S. nuclear governance policy and could signal major shifts in international relations or administration priorities. The current probability suggests markets view withdrawal as possible but not probable, likely reflecting uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, nuclear diplomacy outcomes, and administrative policy preferences in the period ahead. Key drivers include evolving U.S. foreign policy positions, developments in nuclear negotiations with other nations, and broader international organization engagement decisions that may emerge before the deadline.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. nuclear diplomacy stance and whether negotiations with Iran or other nuclear powers influence IAEA engagement
- Changes in U.S. foreign policy or leadership priorities toward international institutions between now and January 2029
- Specific IAEA resolutions or actions that might provoke U.S. reconsideration of membership
- Comparative strength of isolationist versus internationalist policy frameworks within U.S. government during this period
- Whether any triggered international crises make IAEA oversight a political flashpoint

Contracts:
- Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?: World Trade Organization — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029?: United Nations — 26¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 100%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?: World Bank Group — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?: OECD — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?: International Monetary Fund — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?: Inter-American Development Bank — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029?: International Atomic Energy Agency — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. withdraw from Interpol before Jan 20, 2029?: Interpol — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/withdraw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20withdraw%20from%20International%20Atomic%20Energy%20Agency%20before%20Jan%2020%2C%202029
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev