10% — Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship Kalshi 10% · 13 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-28 23:19:31 UTC Why this matters: This 10% probability reflects the current market estimate that LSU will win the Women's College Basketball National Championship in the 2025-26 season. The valuation likely reflects LSU's roster composition, recent tournament performance history, and strength of conference competition within the SEC. Key catalysts include the team's performance through conference play (January-February 2026) and their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, which will provide clearer evidence of championship viability. The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament in March 2026 will ultimately resolve this question, with the championship game scheduled for early April 2026. Between now and then, LSU's win-loss record, tournament selection, and matchup strength will be the primary factors markets use to reassess these odds. Key factors: - LSU's current roster talent level and player development trajectory compared to traditional powerhouses like South Carolina, UConn, and Texas - LSU's historical tournament seeding and performance record (Elite Eight appearances, Final Four accessibility) - The depth and competitiveness of the SEC conference in 2025-26, which affects LSU's tournament path and resume strength - Injury status of key LSU players heading into tournament play - NCAA selection committee's tournament seeding of LSU, which directly influences their path to the championship Contracts: - Will Oklahoma win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Oklahoma — 13¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%) - Will UConn win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: UConn — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will South Carolina win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: South Carolina — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: LSU — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will USC win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: USC — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will TCU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: TCU — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Louisville win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Louisville — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ole Miss win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Ole Miss — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-28T22:20:50.565Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wmarmad Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20LSU%20win%20the%20Women's%20College%20Basketball%20National%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev