93% — Will Walmart Inc. report Above 5.5% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027 Leader: Above 3% at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $320 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:02:23 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 92% likelihood that Walmart's U.S. comparable store sales (excluding fuel) will exceed 3% in Q2 2027, but only 9% odds they'll exceed 5.5%. This wide gap reflects high confidence in modest growth but substantial skepticism about acceleration. The probability hinges on consumer spending patterns through spring 2027 and Walmart's execution on pricing, inventory, and private-label expansion—factors that typically drive mid-single-digit comp growth. Resolution occurs in late July or early August 2027 when Walmart releases Q2 earnings. The market's steepness across price tiers suggests traders view 3-4% growth as the modal outcome, with diminishing confidence in each higher threshold, indicating consensus around normalized retail conditions rather than exceptional performance. Key factors: - Walmart's historical comp-store growth tends to cluster between 2-4% ex-fuel; exceeding 5.5% would represent an unusual acceleration requiring macroeconomic tailwinds or significant market share gains - Consumer discretionary spending and inflation rates in H1 2027 will directly constrain how much unit growth and pricing power Walmart can achieve - Private-label penetration and e-commerce growth are structural drivers of comp growth, but plateaus in these areas would cap upside toward 5.5% - Supply chain stability and labor cost pressures entering Q2 2027 affect Walmart's margin defense and promotional strategy, which influence comparable sales achievement - The earnings release date in late July/early August 2027 is the definitive resolution event; no interim data points typically move market pricing for this metric Contracts: - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 3% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 3% — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 3.5% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 3.5% — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 4% — 60¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 19%) - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4.5% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 4.5% — 32¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 5% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 5% — 15¢ Kalshi $255 (weight 80%) - Will Walmart Inc. report Above 5.5% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027?: Above 5.5% — 5¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:50.336Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wmt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Walmart%20Inc.%20report%20Above%205.5%25%20walmart%20us%20comparable%20sales%20growth%20(ex-fuel)%20in%20Q2%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev