38% — WNBA: 2026 MVP
Leader: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson at 38% · Polymarket 38% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Contracts:
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson — 38¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark — 34¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Rhyne Howard — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Paige Bueckers — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Kelsey Plum — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Nneka Ogwumike — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- WNBA: 2026 MVP: Jackie Young — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:12.119Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnba-mvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=WNBA%3A%202026%20MVP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev