22% — Jonquel Jones: 2+ threes
Kalshi 22% · 17 contracts · $113 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 10% chance that Jonquel Jones makes at least 2 three-pointers in an upcoming game. The current low probability reflects Jones's historical shooting patterns and role within her team's offensive system. Three-point volume depends on factors including team pace, offensive strategy, defensive adjustments by opponents, and Jones's playing time. The probability could shift based on recent performance trends, changes in team composition, or pregame information about defensive matchups. Resolution will occur at the conclusion of the relevant game, when the final three-point total becomes definitive.

Key factors:
- Jonquel Jones's career three-point attempt rate and make percentage compared to the 2+ threshold
- Team offensive strategy and whether the system emphasizes perimeter shooting or interior play
- Opponent's defensive approach and whether it extends coverage to Jones's shooting range
- Jones's recent game-by-game performance and any changes in playing time or role
- Kalshi contract pricing discrepancies (2+ at 23¢ vs. aggregated 10% probability) suggesting potential market inefficiency

Contracts:
- Veronica Burton: 2+ threes: Veronica Burton: 2+ — 44¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 42%)
- Caitlin Clark: 3+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 3+ — 57¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 20%)
- Kelsey Mitchell: 3+ threes: Kelsey Mitchell: 3+ — 41¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 18%)
- Gabby Williams: 3+ threes: Gabby Williams: 3+ — 32¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 11%)
- Janelle Salaün: 3+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 3+ — 35¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 7%)
- Caitlin Clark: 2+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 2+ — 4¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 2%)
- Kelsey Mitchell: 2+ threes: Kelsey Mitchell: 2+ — 73¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)
- Gabby Williams: 2+ threes: Gabby Williams: 2+ — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.386Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnba3pt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Jonquel%20Jones%3A%202%2B%20threes
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev