20% — Will Jewell Loyd win Sixth Player of the Year
Kalshi 20% · 5 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:53:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This 13% probability indicates the market estimates roughly a 1-in-8 chance that Jewell Loyd wins the WNBA Sixth Player of the Year award. The prediction reflects Loyd's status as an elite bench contributor for the Seattle Storm, though she faces competition from higher-probability candidates like Chennedy Carter (39%) and Maddy Siegrist (7%). The award ultimately depends on voting by coaches, players, and media at season's end, which rewards bench players who significantly impact winning while coming off the bench. Loyd's probability would shift upward if the Storm secure a top playoff seed and she maintains strong offensive efficiency, or downward if other benchwarmers demonstrate superior scoring volume or team success. The award is typically decided in late May or early June following the regular season's conclusion.

Key factors:
- Jewell Loyd's actual bench minutes and scoring efficiency during the 2026 WNBA regular season compared to other bench candidates
- Seattle Storm's playoff seeding and win total—voters tend to favor sixth players on successful teams
- Voting patterns from previous years showing whether elite scorers or well-rounded two-way contributors have won the award
- Relative playing time allocation: whether Loyd is used more as a bench scorer or starter, which affects eligibility and narrative
- Performance of competing candidates like Carter and Siegrist, particularly their volume and impact metrics over the full season

Contracts:
- Will Chennedy Carter win Sixth Player of the Year?: Chennedy Carter — 74¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 100%)
- Will DeWanna Bonner win Sixth Player of the Year?: DeWanna Bonner — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Flau'jae Johnson win Sixth Player of the Year?: Flau'jae Johnson — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Maddy Siegrist win Sixth Player of the Year?: Maddy Siegrist — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sophie Cunningham win Sixth Player of the Year?: Sophie Cunningham — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:07.521Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnba6poy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jewell%20Loyd%20win%20Sixth%20Player%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev