23% — Will Allisha Gray win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Kalshi 23% · 6 contracts · $400K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:34:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 6% chance that Allisha Gray will be named MVP of the 2026 WNBA All-Star Game. The probability reflects market expectations based on player performance, All-Star selection likelihood, and historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVPs. The current level is driven by Gray's individual performance relative to other WNBA players and her likelihood of being selected to the All-Star roster. The main catalyst will be the All-Star Game itself, scheduled for 2026, where MVP voting occurs after the game concludes. Gray's probability could shift based on her regular-season statistics, injury status, All-Star voting results, and her performance in the actual game. Relative to other candidates listed—particularly Caitlin Clark at 8¢—the market suggests Gray has moderate odds but faces significant competition from higher-ranked players.

Key factors:
- Allisha Gray's regular-season statistics and performance metrics compared to other eligible WNBA players
- Whether Gray is selected to the 2026 WNBA All-Star roster, which determines MVP eligibility
- Historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVP, which tend to favor higher-usage players and leading scorers
- Gray's actual performance during the 2026 All-Star Game itself, including scoring, assists, and impact metrics
- Competitive landscape: current market shows 11 higher-probability candidates like Olivia Miles (11¢) and Caitlin Clark (8¢)

Contracts:
- Will Caitlin Clark win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Caitlin Clark — 5¢ Kalshi $192K (weight 48%)
- Will Jonquel Jones win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Jonquel Jones — 91¢ Kalshi $74K (weight 19%)
- Will Kelsey Mitchell win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Kelsey Mitchell — 9¢ Kalshi $66K (weight 16%)
- Will Olivia Miles win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Olivia Miles — 3¢ Kalshi $49K (weight 12%)
- Will Dominique Malonga win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Dominique Malonga — 18¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 4%)
- Will Nneka Ogwumike win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Nneka Ogwumike — 12¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T01:20:51.583Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaasgmvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Allisha%20Gray%20win%20All-Star%20Game%20MVP%20in%20the%202026%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev