13% — Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year
Kalshi 13% · 10 contracts · $81 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC

Why this matters:
At 9%, this probability reflects relatively low odds that Lynce Roberts will be named Coach of the Year for the 2025-26 season. The market is heavily concentrated on Joe Mazzulla (94¢), suggesting the favorite has largely consolidated expectations. Roberts' modest probability reflects competition from other strong candidates and the difficulty of winning such awards even when a coach performs well. The primary factors affecting her odds would be her team's win-loss record, playoff performance, and how her achievements compare directly to other finalists. The award will be determined after the NBA season concludes and voting takes place, typically in June, when the full year of coaching performance is evaluated.

Key factors:
- Team record and playoff seeding relative to preseason expectations and roster changes
- Head-to-head voting competition from higher-probability candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and JB Bickerstaff
- Whether Roberts' team makes and advances through the playoffs, as playoff success significantly influences Coach of the Year voting
- Award voting eligibility and specific voting body composition, which may limit the pool of considered candidates
- Media narrative and team improvement trajectory throughout the season compared to other finalist coaches

Contracts:
- Will Cheryl Reeve win Coach of the Year?: Cheryl Reeve — 63¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 63%)
- Will Sydney Johnson win Coach of the Year?: Sydney Johnson — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 29%)
- Will Jose Fernandez win Coach of the Year?: Jose Fernandez — 10¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 8%)
- Will Alex Sarama win Coach of the Year?: Alex Sarama — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Becky Hammon win Coach of the Year?: Becky Hammon — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Karl Smesko win Coach of the Year?: Karl Smesko — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year?: Lynne Roberts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Natalie Nakase win Coach of the Year?: Natalie Nakase — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:50.175Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbacoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lynne%20Roberts%20win%20Coach%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev