10% — Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year
Kalshi 10% · 8 contracts · $192 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This 10% probability reflects market expectations that A'ja Wilson will win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Wilson currently faces significant competition from edge rushers like Will Anderson Jr. and Maxx Crosby, who command higher probabilities. The projection depends on Wilson's defensive statistics through the season—particularly sack totals, tackles for loss, and impact plays—relative to other strong defensive candidates. The award typically goes to players with standout individual performances and team visibility. The probability will clarify substantially as the regular season progresses and clearer performance patterns emerge, with final determination occurring at season's end when voting takes place. Current low trading volume and minimal movement in her contract suggest limited market activity around this outcome.

Key factors:
- A'ja Wilson plays in the NBA, not NFL; DPOY voters are considering NFL defensive ends and linebackers, creating a categorical mismatch
- Market assigns higher probabilities to edge rushers (Anderson Jr. at 4¢, Crosby at 6¢) who historically dominate this award
- The probability would increase if Wilson posted elite defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rating) that outpaced competitors
- DPOY voting occurs post-season, making mid-season performance data the primary resolution driver
- Extremely low trading volume ($0-$166 across contracts) suggests this market has minimal participation and may not reflect deep analytical consensus

Contracts:
- Will Napheesa Collier win Defensive Player of the Year?: Napheesa Collier — 8¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 61%)
- Will Gabby Williams win Defensive Player of the Year?: Gabby Williams — 4¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 22%)
- Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year?: A'ja Wilson — 32¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 11%)
- Will Angel Reese win Defensive Player of the Year?: Angel Reese — 7¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 4%)
- Will Alyssa Thomas win Defensive Player of the Year?: Alyssa Thomas — 4¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 2%)
- Will Aliyah Boston win Defensive Player of the Year?: Aliyah Boston — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Alanna Smith win Defensive Player of the Year?: Alanna Smith — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Cameron Brink win Defensive Player of the Year?: Cameron Brink — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbadpoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20A'ja%20Wilson%20win%20Defensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev