11% — Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year
Kalshi 11% · 8 contracts · $58 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 04:41:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 10% probability reflects market expectations that A'ja Wilson will win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Wilson currently faces significant competition from edge rushers like Will Anderson Jr. and Maxx Crosby, who command higher probabilities. The projection depends on Wilson's defensive statistics through the season—particularly sack totals, tackles for loss, and impact plays—relative to other strong defensive candidates. The award typically goes to players with standout individual performances and team visibility. The probability will clarify substantially as the regular season progresses and clearer performance patterns emerge, with final determination occurring at season's end when voting takes place. Current low trading volume and minimal movement in her contract suggest limited market activity around this outcome.

Key factors:
- A'ja Wilson plays in the NBA, not NFL; DPOY voters are considering NFL defensive ends and linebackers, creating a categorical mismatch
- Market assigns higher probabilities to edge rushers (Anderson Jr. at 4¢, Crosby at 6¢) who historically dominate this award
- The probability would increase if Wilson posted elite defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rating) that outpaced competitors
- DPOY voting occurs post-season, making mid-season performance data the primary resolution driver
- Extremely low trading volume ($0-$166 across contracts) suggests this market has minimal participation and may not reflect deep analytical consensus

Contracts:
- Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year?: A'ja Wilson — 45¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 54%)
- Will Aliyah Boston win Defensive Player of the Year?: Aliyah Boston — 3¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 46%)
- Will Alanna Smith win Defensive Player of the Year?: Alanna Smith — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Angel Reese win Defensive Player of the Year?: Angel Reese — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Breanna Stewart win Defensive Player of the Year?: Breanna Stewart — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Gabby Williams win Defensive Player of the Year?: Gabby Williams — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Napheesa Collier win Defensive Player of the Year?: Napheesa Collier — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Rhyne Howard win Defensive Player of the Year?: Rhyne Howard — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:49.449Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbadpoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20A'ja%20Wilson%20win%20Defensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev