12% — Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player Kalshi 12% · 12 contracts · $153 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 12:12:45 UTC Why this matters: This 12% probability reflects markets assessing Rickea Jackson's likelihood of winning the WNBA's Most Improved Player award for the 2026 season. The relatively low odds suggest Jackson faces significant competition, particularly from Jessica Shepard (currently priced at 74¢, indicating approximately 74% implied probability across the field). MIP voting typically rewards players who demonstrate substantial statistical improvement from their previous season—whether through increased scoring, efficiency, playing time, or other measurable contributions. Jackson's odds would rise if she posts career-high statistical gains or her team makes unexpected playoff progress; they would fall if other candidates show more dramatic year-over-year improvement. The award will be determined following the completion of the 2026 WNBA regular season and playoff run, with voting occurring in late September or early October 2026. Market pricing suggests strong confidence in alternative candidates, but Jackson remains within the plausible range of winners given the historical variability of MIP voting. Key factors: - Jackson's statistical improvement trajectory relative to 2025 baseline—scoring, shooting efficiency, assists, or other countable metrics would need to exceed gains posted by competing candidates - Current season playing time allocation and usage rate compared to previous year, as MIP typically rewards increased opportunity and performance - Head-to-head statistical and narrative comparison versus Jessica Shepard, who represents the consensus frontrunner based on 74¢ market pricing - Whether Jackson's team makes unexpected playoff advancement, as team success often influences voter perception of individual improvement - Voting patterns from previous WNBA seasons and whether Jackson receives meaningful consideration from official voting panel, which occurred in late September of prior years Contracts: - Will Jessica Shepard win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season?: Jessica Shepard — 74¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 100%) - Will Gabby Williams win Most Improved Player?: Gabby Williams — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player?: Rickea Jackson — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kamilla Cardoso win Most Improved Player?: Kamilla Cardoso — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Maddy Siegrist win Most Improved Player?: Maddy Siegrist — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Aliyah Boston win Most Improved Player?: Aliyah Boston — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Natasha Mack win Most Improved Player?: Natasha Mack — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rae Burrell win Most Improved Player?: Rae Burrell — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.804Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbamimp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rickea%20Jackson%20win%20Most%20Improved%20Player Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev