16% — Will Caitlin Clark win MVP
Kalshi 16% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 05:44:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Caitlin Clark will win the NBA Finals MVP award this season. Clark's chances depend heavily on her individual performance metrics and her team's playoff success, as Finals MVP typically goes to a star player on the championship team. The primary driver of this probability is the Philadelphia 76ers' current playoff position and whether they reach the Finals, since the contract data suggests strong market interest in Eastern Conference contenders. The resolution will occur following the NBA Finals, which typically concludes in mid-June, when the award is officially announced. Movement in this probability will primarily track playoff results and individual statistical performances as teams progress toward the championship series.

Key factors:
- Philadelphia's playoff seeding and remaining schedule determines whether Clark's team reaches the Finals
- Clark's scoring, assist, and efficiency statistics relative to other star players on Finals-bound teams
- Market pricing on competing Finals MVP candidates (Wembanyama at 18¢ shows relative confidence in other players)
- Whether Clark maintains starter role and significant minutes throughout playoff progression
- Official Finals MVP voting criteria and historical patterns of how voters weight individual vs. team success

Contracts:
- Will Olivia Miles win MVP?: Olivia Miles — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 79%)
- Will Paige Bueckers win MVP?: Paige Bueckers — 10¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 9%)
- Will A'ja Wilson win MVP?: A'ja Wilson — 69¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 7%)
- Will Caitlin Clark win MVP?: Caitlin Clark — 3¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 6%)
- Will Breanna Stewart win MVP?: Breanna Stewart — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sabrina Ionescu win MVP?: Sabrina Ionescu — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-14T05:20:50.259Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbamvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Caitlin%20Clark%20win%20MVP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev